DeepMind and NVIDIA have released 31 million protein complex predictions under the Apache 2.0 open-source license, significantly reducing computational time and cost. However, only a small fraction meet the high-confidence threshold for drug-related targets, raising concerns about AI model calibration.
Isomorphic Labs' AlphaFold 4 achieves breakthrough in predicting cancer protein structures with 95% accuracy, published in Nature, triggering biotech stock rally. However, the path from structural prediction to actual drug development still faces a 10-year marathon due to technical and regulatory challenges.
While AI promises to compress traditional drug development from 10-15 years to potentially just a few years, with companies like Insilico Medicine achieving clinical trials in 18 months, skeptics point to persistent clinical trial challenges and regulatory barriers that question whether this represents true revolution or mere hype.
