Anthropic IPO Valuation Relies on 2028 Revenue Forecast of $190-200 Billion

According to a Reuters report on August 14, Anthropic is preparing for what could be one of the largest IPOs in history, with its valuation heavily dependent on a revenue forecast of approximately $190-200 billion by 2028. The figure, confirmed by two people familiar with the company's finances, has not been previously disclosed.

This forecast is far higher than the $47 billion revenue run rate Anthropic announced in May this year, underscoring the scale of growth investors would need to underwrite. Bankers and investors are valuing the company using forecast-based enterprise value-to-revenue multiples, four sources said.

How the Valuation Mechanism Works

High-growth software companies are commonly valued on revenue multiples because they have not yet developed mature profitability models. But such forecasts rarely extend two years into the future. Anthropic's situation reflects the pace of its business expansion and the reality of sustained heavy spending to build AI infrastructure. The accelerating growth of AI investment spending has already triggered recent pullbacks in several hot tech stocks, including some deemed comparable to Anthropic.

Investors are betting that after Anthropic's growth phase, revenue growth will outpace the costs required to support that growth, thereby expanding profit margins. This logic aligns with recent IPO precedents set by Cerebras Systems and SpaceX: Cerebras cited 2028 revenue expectations before its IPO, while SpaceX extended its projections to 2029.

Practical Impact on Stakeholders

For the competitive landscape, Anthropic's use of forward revenue multiples could raise the IPO bar for other AI companies, as the market will apply the same yardstick to growth expectations. Upstream and downstream cloud infrastructure providers may benefit in the short term from Anthropic's continued procurement of computing resources, but if the forecasts are not met, a slowdown in capital expenditure would directly hit their orders.

For developers and enterprise users, a valuation tied to high growth expectations means Anthropic must sustain investment in model training and hiring, which could push up API service prices or lengthen product iteration cycles. Palantir is valued at 53 times this year's expected revenue, while SpaceX and Cloudflare trade at 41.6 times 2026 expected revenue. These comparable companies offer different reference points: Palantir emphasizes enterprise software growth, Cloudflare focuses on cloud infrastructure, and SpaceX reflects the valuation logic of long-term aerospace projects.

Forward-Looking Assessment

Based on the above facts, the most likely scenario is that Anthropic will continue to engage investors with 2028 revenue multiples around Analyst Day. Validation signals include whether the revenue run rate in subsequent earnings reports approaches the $47 billion baseline, and whether AI infrastructure spending begins to be covered by revenue growth.

If revenue growth falls short of expectations, the market may revert to more near-term financial metrics for valuation, similar to the earlier tech stock pullbacks driven by AI spending. Conversely, if growth persists, the multiples of comparable companies such as Palantir will become direct benchmarks.